Cover Story: Beyond Headlines, Real Opportunity

Nile Capital’s blog at www.moneywatchafrica.com recently quoted an April 16 Wall Street Journal op ed by Ian Birrell, a former speechwriter for British Prime Minister David Cameron:

“The terrorist bombing that killed 71 people in Nigeria’s capital Monday morning [April 14] abruptly turned attention from what had been remarkable news ... The gruesome bombing captured headlines, of course ... But it would be a shame if the explosion overshadowed the pace of change in Nigeria, which reflects a broader economic transformation under way in much of Africa.

For too long, a self-serving alliance of Western aid groups, politicians, and journalists presented sub-Saharan Africa as a dangerously failed place in need of outside salvation. They offered only corrosive images of conflict, poverty, and disease, leaving tourists scared to visit and making fearful businesses slow to engage. The real story is rather different: It includes the stuttering spread of democracy, impressive economic growth, and a continent that now has more people who are overweight than go to bed hungry each night.

Nigeria, which accounts for one-quarter of Africa’s economy, underlines this complex new narrative. It is a remarkably entrepreneurial nation, perhaps one legacy of political failures and state inadequacies. The huge increase in GDP was largely driven by a thriving service sector and, increasingly, by manufacturing. Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, is a Nigerian cement and food supplier. The oil and gas industries that traditionally propped up the economy contribute only 14 percent of GDP.

Goldman Sachs predicts that Nigeria’s economy will be bigger than Canada’s or Italy’s by 2050 — and not far behind Germany’s. And this is just one of 54 countries on a large continent that is home to six of the world’s 10 fastest-growing economies and the youngest population on the planet. The same rapid evolution is visible in Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, or Tanzania. Already Africa has a bigger middle class than India, driving the consumer spending that powers this economic swelling. Contrary to popular conception, the majority of Africa’s most rapidly expanding nations do not rely on natural resources . . . There is nothing illusory about the rapid growth and rampant change across the continent. Profound problems remain, as in other parts of the world — but much of Africa stands on the brink of takeoff comparable to China’s. Those who fail to see this are likely to regret their anachronistic attitude.